A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
